Cue the Duckboats!! and a couple poker hands

I usually don't like to jinx these things, but this Celtics series is over. The C's are playing their best basketball since the '08 title run, and as long as that continues, I don't think anyone can stop them. Paul Pierce continues to have his way with Vince Carter on offense, getting any shot he wants. The Magic have no answer for Rondo in transition. Baby continues to play well, and Perk and Sheed keep effectively hacking Dwight (Da-white) Howard. Getcha brooms ready.

How great was it when Vince went down with another fake injury in game 2? He slipped a little and then grabbed his left wrist, which would have made sense, if, you know, he had fallen on his left wrist. I was watching the game with my parents and I immediately started cackling and said "there he goes again" when Vince went down. The replay confirmed that he hadn't hit his wrist and was faking it. I laughed and said "he didn't even hit his wrist! He's faking it!" Mom didn't understand why he'd do that. "I don't get it, why would he fake it?" I told her "that's just what he does." Vince Carter, ladies and gentlemen!

Speaking of Vince, he destroyed any chance for a Magic comeback by bricking two free throws with 30 seconds left and the Magic down by 3. This was surprising to...well, no one. Vince's choke overshadowed another pathetic game from Rashard Lewis (6 years, $110 million). Somehow he can't even take KG off the dribble from 25 feet. Realistically he deserves the blame for the Magic's poor performance more than even Vince or da-white.

It may be too early to think ahead to the finals, but you have to like our chances against the Lakers. I'll breakdown the matchups when the time comes, but lets just say the Rondo-Fisher matchup will be like a war between Germany and France, and Rondo sure as hell ain't gonna be France.

Alright, on to a couple poker hands from my last live session. 1/2 NL Holdem at Foxwoods.
Action folds to me in the Highjack seat. I open to $10 w Ks10h. Villain on button makes it $20. Villain has been aggressive, having shown a bluff in a big pot from position. Usually a min-raise like that means Aces, Kings, or Queens, usually not AK against a random because most are afraid to play AK post flop. So realistically this is an easy fold, but I like to build a loose-aggressive (read donk) image at these live tables as it makes it easy to get paid off with big hands.

So with a pot of about $40, we see a heads up flop of A 6 2 rainbow. I check, villain bets out $25. At this point his range is polarized, as if he has AA or the very occasional AK he is sitting pretty but if he has KK or QQ he hates that flop. I figure I can make the min raise to $50, risking $50 to win a $65 pot, and the play only has to be successful less than 50% of the time to be a +EV play. Assuming he will fold a non-ace, it seems to be a +EV play. AA is less likely with the A on the flop, so we'll estimate his range at something like 35%AA, 40%KK, 15% QQ, 10% AK or AQ. So we expect him to be folding 55% of the time. Naturally, he calls. I obviously have to shut it down and check-fold the turn. I do, and he shows...KK!?

Weird hand, but I still think the play on the flop is +EV in a vacuum, as I think most will fold KK in that situation. Also, for image purposes, a check-raise on the flop followed by a check-fold makes me look like a complete nut who will check-raise an A high flop with air, which should help me to get paid off in later hands. Obviously my call pre-flop is dangerous, and I would recommend against making that call. I did it because 1. I'm a huge donk, and 2. my range was basically any two cards, while his range was very narrow. Generally when you can keep your range wide and your opponent's range narrow, you have created a +EV situation, although not when your out of position and your opponent may be holding the nuts.

On to hand 2. Action folds to me in the cutoff seat, I hold KsQd. I make it $13 to play (my standard raise has been anywhere from $10-$15.) The SB (villain from the other hand) and BB (calling station) call. Here we have created a much better situation than the last hand, as I have position in a 3 way pot with likely the best hand.
Flop: 10 8 2 rainbow.
SB leads out $20 into a pot of about $40. BB folds.

Ok so here we have a situation where the SB leads out on a raggy flop. The standard play is to check to the pre-flop aggressor, and leading out into him is called a donk bet. Most people will do this hoping to take down the pot immediately with a hand that caught some of the board. People will occasionally do this with a set, but it's hard to imagine the SB would do that against an aggressive player like me who is likely to continuation bet almost every flop. So here is another spot where you can just fold, but the guy leading out to me likely has a weak 10 or 8, and I doubt his hand is strong enough to play a big pot out of position, so I make it $60. In a pot in position like this my cards matter less than how much heat I think my opponent's hand can take, so once again I think raising to 60 (betting 60 to win 60) is a +EV play. But of course my opponent calls the bet and eventually wins the hand holding K8. Anyway, I still think my play is theoretically a good one, although it's possible I picked the wrong opponent to try to make the play against.

-Aloy